10 چالش اصلی اقتصاد کشور

مردم به روحانی امیدوار شده اند که می تواند زندگی روزمره مردم را با وجود همه سختی ها هرچند کوچک و اندک بهبود دهد.

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صادق الحسینی

 111 سال از شروع تحول خواهی ایرانیان در مشروطه گذشته است. در این مسیر پر فراز و نشیب سالهای سخت، این سرزمین کهن، چندین و چند جنگ به خصوص دو جنگ بزرگ و اشغال بخشی از خاک کشور، دو تحریم بزرگ جهانی، از دست رفتن برخی از مناطق کشور و کوچک تر شدن سرزمین اصلی ایران را تجربه کرده است. دو سلسله پادشاهی و یک انقلاب بزرگ در این سالها وجود داشته اند. انقلابی که در آستانه 40 سالگی است. انقلابی که ابرقدرت های خارجی از روز اول کمر به از بین بردن آن بسته بودند اما کاری از پیش نبردند. ولی در این آستانه و با اشتباهاتی که خود ما کرده ایم، دوباره چشم طمع تیز کرده اند.

 در 12 سال گذشته، اشتباهات زیادی انجام شد. این اشتباهات در سال های 84 تا 90 در زیر هجوم مه آلود درآمدهای بادآورده نفتی پنهان شدند و با اولین تحریم خارجی ناگهان خود را چون کوه یخی از ابرچالش ها و چالش ها به رخ کشیدند. با بحرانی شدن شرایط پس از سال 90، زندگی مردم به صورت مستقیم تحت تاثیر قرار گرفت؛ اشتغال خالص منفی شد، تورم به 34 درصد رسید و رشد اقتصادی کشور برای دو سال پیاپی به زیر صفر رسید.

 در سال 92 مردم به کسی رای دادند که از او انتظار داشتند تا این سیر قهقرایی را متوقف کند. مسیری که در آن هر روز قیمت ها زیاد می شد، کره و شیر خشک و دارو نایاب شده بود و فروش نفت ایران هر روز کاهش می یافت. حسن روحانی در 4 سال نخست موفق شد تا هم صادرات نفت کشور را برگرداند، هم تورم را کنترل کند، هم رشد اقتصادی را مثبت سازد و مهمتر از همه آرامش و ثبات را به زندگی مردم بازگرداند.

 بخاطر همین ثبات و جلوگیری از سیر قهقرایی بود که مردم دوباره با رایی بالا حسن روحانی را در سال ۹۶ انتخاب کردند و به دیگران نه گفتند. این یعنی مردم به روحانی امیدوار شده اند. امیدوار شده اند که می تواند زندگی روزمره مردم را با وجود همه سختی ها هرچند کوچک و اندک بهبود دهد.
 
 ایران دیگر فرصتی ندارد. سال های پایانی قرن شمسی را می گذرانیم. شرایط بین المللی و منطقه ای به گونه ای است که اگر نتوانیم بحران های داخلی مان را سریعتر سر و سامان دهیم و تار و پود در هم تنیده چالش ها و ابرچالش ها را از هم باز کنیم، شاید دیگر فرصتی برای هیچ کس نباشد که بخواهد کاری بکند. ایران بحرانی ترین شرایط خود بعد از جنگ جهانی دوم را می گذراند.

  ایران را که هویتی به درازنای تاریخ دارد دریابیم. اختلافات داخلی، حزبی، جناحی و شخصی را کنار بگذاریم و دست به دست هم دهیم برای حل چالش ها و برای مدیریت ابرچالش ها. بدون انسجام عقلای قوم و گرفتن بازی از دست تندروها، امیدی برای موفقیت دولت و در نتیجه برای جلوگیری از سیر قهقرایی که از سال ۹۰ آغاز شده و در حال بلعیدن کشور است وجود ندارد.

 گذشته از انسجام داخلی، آچار سه گوش اقتصاد ایران یعنی وزارت اقتصاد، سازمان برنامه و بانک مرکزی باید هماهنگ چیده شوند و هماهنگ کار کنند. با وجود این اختلاف ها در تیم اقتصادی، امکان مدیریت ابر چالش ها و حل چالش های اقتصادی کشور وجود ندارد.

 اگر ابرچالش بیکاری را کنار بگذاریم. در نگاه من 10 چالش اصلی اقتصادی کشور که با تدبیر و تلاش دولت و تیم اقتصادی و با همراهی همه قابل حل شدن هستند به ترتیب اهمیت عبارتند از:

1-  بحران بانکی و نرخ سود بالا و در نتیجه کاهش شدید سرمایه گذاری

2-  واقعی نبودن نرخ ارز و صنعتی زدایی ناشی از آن

3-  چالش کسادی در کسب و کارها علی رغم رشد اقتصادی مثبت

4-  بسته بودن فضای کسب و کار و دخالت های دولتی

5-  چالش ناکارآمدی سیستم دولتی و اتخاذ سیاست های مالی غیراصولی

6-  وضعیت بحرانی صندوق های بازنشستگی و بحران بیمه

7-  بحران فساد سیستمی

8-  چالش پرداخت یارانه به کل جمعیت کشور

9-  مشکلات سیستم مالیاتی در شناخت و مالیات گیری صحیح

10-  چالش قیمت گذاری نادرست کالاهای اساسی به خصوص انرژی

تخمین نیمه دوم سال 96 برای زمان خروج احتمالی مسکن از رکود

یک کارشناس مسکن در گفتگو با پول نیوز مطرح کرد؛

نیمه دوم سال 96 زمان خروج مسکن از رکود

مهدی سلطان محمدی گفت: انتظار می رود بازار مسکن در سال آینده آرام آرام از رکود خارج شود چرا که امسال نشانه های خروج از رکود در بازار مسکن نمایان شده و می توان گفت نیمه دوم سال 96 زمان خروج مسکن از رکود است.

پول نیوز - در مورد آینده بازار مسکن تحلیل های مختلفی وجود دارد اما به اعتقاد بسیاری از کارشناسان بازار مسکن در سال آینده آرام آرام به سمت خروج از رکود حرکت کرده و به احتمال قوی در نیمه دوم سال آینده بازار مسکن به رونق می رسد.

در این خصوص مهدی سلطان محمدی کارشناس و فعال بازار مسکن در گفتگو با خبرنگار پول نیوز گفت: در سال 95 تدام رکود در بازار مسکن را شاهد بودیم به گونه ای که مسکن در رشد ناخالص داخلی اثری نداشته و بر خلاف بخش خدمات، کشاورزی، صنعت و نفت که رشد مثبتی را ثبت کردند مسکن منفی بوده و رکود در طرف عرضه تداوم داشته است.

وی ادامه داد: تولید مصالح ساختمانی نیز در سال جاری کاهش داشته و از میزان ساختمانهای در دست احداث نیز کاسته شده است به همین جهت می توان به طور قطع گفت وضعیت سمت عرضه مسکن مناسب نبوده است.

به گفته سلطان محمدی؛ اما در تقاضا اندکی اوضاع بهتر بوده به گونه ای که حجم معاملات در تهران و شهرهای دیگر اندکی افزایش داشته است؛ از نظر ثبات قیمتی نیز اندکی افزایش وجود داشته اما به نرخ تورم نرسیده است، در کل باید گفت قیمت مسکن رشد منفی داشته و تنها قیمت اسمی اندکی افزایشی بوده است اما نه به اندازه ای که بگویم بازار مسکن سال خوبی را پشت سر گذاشته است.

این کارشناس بازار مسکن خاطر نشان کرد: انتظار می رود بازار مسکن در سال آینده آرام آرام از رکود خارج شود چرا که امسال نشانه های  خروج از رکود در بازار مسکن نمایان شده و می توان گفت نیمه دوم سال 96 زمان خروج مسکن از رکود است.

وی ادامه داد: چرا که دو نشانه در مورد خروج از رکود نمایان شده است؛ اول اینکه حجم معاملات افزایش داشته و به بالاتر از سال 94 رسیده است و دوم اینکه حجم سرمایه گذاری در بانک مسکن برای مسکن یکم افزایش داشته که نشان از تحریک تقاضا در حوزه مسکن دارد و تقاضا را برای نیمه دوم سال 96 وارد بازار می کند.

وی تصریح کرد: به همین جهت می توان امیدوار بود بهبود در عرضه به همراه تقویت تقاضا  بازار مسکن را از رکود خارج کند.

سلطان محمدی اینگونه سخنان خود را جمع بندی کرد: علائم بازار نشان می دهد سال آینده در عرضه و تقاضا بهتر از سال 95 خواهد بود و حتی ممکن است به افزایش تعداد پروانه ساخت نیز منجر بشود. بررسی همه جوانب حکایت از آن دارد که در سال آینده رونق نسبی و آرام را شاهد خواهیم بود که البته بعید است به میزان تورم باشد.

به گزارش پول نیوز؛ فعالان بازار مسکن از رشد قیمت ها از 15 تا 20 درصد برای سال آینده صحبت می کنند و گروهی هم از نوسانات قیمتی در آستانه انتخابات سخن می گویند؛  در این میان مشکلات اقتصاد کلان هم بر حوزه مسکن بی تاثیر نیست.

گفته می شود تا زمانی که مشکلات بیرونی حوزه مسکن حل نشود این بخش از رکود خارج نخواهد شد و تمهیدات و تسهیلاتی همچون وام 160 میلیون تومانی، پیش فروش مسکن، فروش اقساطی و... تأثیرگذار نیست.

پول نیوز

منبع: پول نیوز

آشنایی با بنیاد "قایق نجات زندگی" lifeboat Foundation

lifeboat.com

The Lifeboat Foundation is a nonprofit nongovernmental organization dedicated to encouraging scientific advancements while helping humanity survive existential risks and possible misuse of increasingly powerful technologies, including genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and robotics/AI, as we move towards the Singularity.
Lifeboat Foundation is pursuing a variety of options, including helping to accelerate the development of technologies to defend humanity such as new methods to combat viruses, effective nanotechnological defensive strategies, and even self-sustaining space colonies in case the other defensive strategies fail.

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مرتبط:    related:

- A-PRIZE of the Lifeboat Foundation

- LifeShield Bunkers of the Lifeboat Foundation

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A-PRIZE of the Lifeboat Foundation

A-PRIZE

Purpose

The purpose of the A-PRIZE is to put development of artificial life forms in the open where it should be. Today, many efforts at developing artificial life are not well publicized. The A-PRIZE serves as a clearing house for information about the race to “Break the Carbon Barrier”. With mega-universities and companies racing to create nonbiological life, now is the time for such a clearing house.
 
With the reality that Nanobiotechnology (in its various guises including Synthetic Biology, Artificial Life, Biological Engineering, etc.) is pouring billions per year into the global race to break through the Carbon Barrier, now is the time to focus on this issue.
 
A bacterium with nonstandard DNA would be immune to bacteriophages, and would therefore have a much higher chance of becoming a broadly successful invasive species. That could devastate ecosystems on a scale that we don’t know the limits of. So let’s try to handle the development of artificial life in an open and responsible way by putting development in the open and engaging in development in a safe manner.
 

Overview

The A-PRIZE was developed by our Scientific Advisory Board member Alan H. Goldstein who coauthored the National Research Council’s triennial review of the National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI). Input was also provided by other members of our Scientific Advisory Board including Mark A. Rothstein. Read our interview with Alan H. Goldstein!
 
It is awarded to the person or organization responsible for creating an Animat/Artificial life form with an emphasis on the safety of the researchers, public, and environment OR the person or organization who shows that an Animat/Artificial life form has been created. (The second case is to uncover unpublicized or unsafe projects.)
 
For nearly half a century, SETI efforts have Searched for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence. Instead of searching for alien life outside our planet, the Lifeboat Foundation has decided to take the opposite approach and to search for “alien” life on this planet. We call our efforts “Finding Artificial Life Created by Nanobiotechnology” (FALCN, which is pronounced like falcon).
 
In 1978 the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded to Werner Arber, Daniel Nathans and Hamilton O. Smith for the discovery of restriction enzymes and their application to problems of molecular genetics. In an editorial comment in the journal Gene, Wacław Szybalski wrote: “The work on restriction nucleases not only permits us easily to construct recombinant DNA molecules and to analyze individual genes but also has led us into the new era of synthetic biology where not only existing genes are described and analyzed but also new gene arrangements can be constructed and evaluated”.
 
We feel it is time to begin the search because considerable advancements in synthetic biology have been made recently. For example, we now have an International Conference on Synthetic Biology. At the most recent conference, our Scientific Advisory Board member Stephen M. Maurer was author of a groundbreaking proposal to finally have a code of conduct for the field of synthetic biology which unfortunately was not accepted at that meeting.
 
Because of rejections of proposals such as Maurer’s there is no coherent federal regulation or plans to develop coherent regulation of emerging fields such as nanobiotechnology/synthetic biology/artificial life. Worldwide, the situation is entirely chaotic.
 

What is an Animat?

This term was developed by Alan H. Goldstein. In his article I, Nanobot, he suggested that a new state of life be named after the contraction of the term “anima-materials” — “animats”. This artificial life form (most likely nanobiotechnology based) must meet the following tests:

A = Devices that can survive and function in our ecosphere, for example inside human beings.
 
B = Devices that can derive energy from biological metabolism. Many nanomedical devices will be powered by the fuel available inside the human body. A common idea is to take our own glucose-oxidizing enzymes and use them as a fuel cell for the nanobiobot.
 
C = Devices capable of copying themselves by molecular self-assembly. Note that any information necessary for the animat’s operations cannot be stored in DNA or RNA or any other methods that are discovered to be used naturally by life on Earth. The corollary: If the information necessary to execute the animat’s operations can be stored in DNA or RNA, then the animat is really biological and is not an animat.

So A + B + C = a self-replicating device capable of living in our ecosphere, powered by fuel available in our ecosphere = Animat.
 
Learn more about the Animat Test!
 

A-PRIZE Taxonomic System

Taxonomic System For Current And Near-Future Life Forms On Earth: Because Molecular Engineering (a.k.a. Nanobiotechnology) is already a reality, we must develop careful terminology in order to characterize the novel life forms that will emerge from this revolutionary endeavor. This table may be considered as a first attempt to create a coherent, fully inclusive set of Life Form Types, i.e. to create an expanded taxonomy that can accommodate the products of Molecular Engineering. Life Form Types are defined based on how a given life form functions and how it came into being. It is crucial to recognize that Molecular Engineering will ultimately result in every possible permutation and combination of these Life Form Types.
 
It is unlikely that a fully functional Synthetic Nonbiological Life Form (a.k.a. an Animat — see Type 4 below) will come into being in the near future. Therefore, the Carbon Barrier^TM is defined as the moment in the evolution of human Molecular Engineering when we first create an organism that must execute at least one synthetic nonbiological operation in order to complete its life cycle. The person or group that verifiably creates such an organism with an emphasis on the safety of the researchers, public, and environment, OR the person or group that provides information leading to the discovery that such an organism has been created will win the A-PRIZE.
 
Taxonomy System
 
The Life Form Type Natural Biological has the defining characteristics that Natural Biological Life Forms are limited to organisms wherein all the information necessary to execute the minimum set of physical and chemical operations necessary to complete a life cycle must be stored in DNA and/or RNA. In addition these life forms must either have come about by terrestrial evolution, or via manipulation by Homo sapiens at or above the cellular level of organismal structure.
 
Humans have been genetically manipulating biological life forms such as crop plants for thousands of years via conventional breeding. This definition allows anything down to the product(s) of in vitro fertilization to qualify as a Type 1 Life Form.
 
The Life Form Type Genetically-Engineered Biological has the defining characteristics that Genetically-Engineered Biological Life Forms also conform to the rule that all information necessary to execute the minimum set of physical and chemical operations necessary to complete a life cycle must be stored in DNA and/or RNA. Type 2 Life Forms are created via direct intervention of humans below the cellular level of organization but this intervention uses a “top-down” strategy whereby existing biomolecules are rearranged or chemically modified.
 
In addition to recombinant DNA and the other standard molecular biology tools of biotechnology (e.g. protein engineering, pathway engineering etc.) Type 2 Life Forms would include those created by subcellular methods such as somatic nuclear transfer.
 
The Life Form Type Synthetic Biological has the defining characteristics that Synthetic Biological Life Forms also conform to the rule that all information necessary to execute the minimum set of physical and chemical operations necessary to complete a life cycle must be stored in DNA and/or RNA. Rather than use pre-existing biomolecules, Type 3 Life Forms are created via direct human intervention using a ‘bottom-up’ strategy whereby the minimum number of biomolecules necessary to initiate life cycling (DNA, RNA, proteins, the bounding membrane of a synthetic cell, etc.) are synthesized and assembled in the laboratory de novo from nonliving chemical precursors.
 
The definition of a Type 3 Life Form brings up many interesting questions. For example, if we could synthesize and assemble all the components of a specific strain of E. coli (say K-12) and it began to grow and divide, would it’s progeny be considered Type 3 or Type 1 Life Forms? These issues can only be addressed after we have developed a coherent set of life form definitions.
 
The Life Form Type Synthetic Nonbiological (Animat) has the defining characteristics that Synthetic Nonbiological Life Forms absolutely must not conform to the rule that all information necessary to execute the minimum set of physical and chemical operations necessary to complete a life cycle must be stored in DNA and/or RNA. In fact, the exact opposite condition must be imposed as a taxonomic requirement. A completely Synthetic Nonbiological Life Form would not use any biomolecules to store information or execute life cycle operations. Any such organism would be considered a fully functional Animat.
 
The highest probability is that the first Synthetic Nonbiological Life on Earth will appear in hybrid organisms where one or more essential life cycle operations must be carried out using chemistry outside the parameters set for of the Biological Life. In fact, over the next decade we will see the emergence of Multi-hybrid Life Forms containing Natural, Genetically Engineered, and Synthetic Biological components as well as one or more Synthetic Nonbiological components.
 

What is the Carbon Barrier?

Nanobiotechnology is expected to eliminate the difference between living and nonliving materials, thereby ending biology’s monopoly on life… Alan H. Goldstein has termed that monopoly the “Carbon Barrier”.
 

Judges

The first phase of judging is to determine if proper safety precautions have been taken. Our safety judges are: Russell Blackford, Alan H. Goldstein, Joseph D. Miller, and Philippe Van Nedervelde. All judges must agree that proper safety precautions have been taken for an award to be given. Let us know if you are qualified to be a safety judge!
 
The second phase of judging is to determine if an animat has been created. Our animat judges are: Alan H. Goldstein and Joseph D. Miller. All judges must agree that an animat has been created for an award to be given. Let us know if you are qualified to be a animat judge!
 

Prize

Besides creating an animat, two additional items must be submitted to receive the prize: (1) a description of the measures taken by the researchers to ensure the safety of researchers, the public, and the environment during the course of the research; and (2) an analysis of the ethical, legal, and social implications of the research, along with an indication of what societal measures are needed to maximize the benefits and eliminate or minimize the possible harms flowing from the discovery.
 
We are looking for donors to add to the prize total. To collect the prize money, submit winning entries to [e-mail].
 

Notes and References

Artificial Life Likely in 3 to 10 Years, Seth Borenstein, AP – August 19, 2007.
 
I am creating artificial life, declares US gene pioneer, Ed Pilkington, The Guardian, October 6, 2007.
 
I, Nanobot by Alan H. Goldstein – March 9, 2006.
 
Life, Reinvented: A group of MIT engineers wanted to model the biological world. But, damn, some of nature’s designs were complicated! So they started rebuilding from the ground up — and gave birth to synthetic biology, Oliver Morton, Wired – January, 2005.
 
Regenesis, Matthew Herper, Forbes – August 18, 2006.
 
Tweaking Genes in the Basement, Allen Riddell – July 6, 2006.
 
The Ultimate Right to Life Debate: Synthetic biologists know the meaning of life, but do they know the meaning of synthetic biology? by Alan H. Goldstein – September, 2006.

NASA bets big on private sector to put humans on Mars

Nyshka Chandran | @nyshkac

NASA will continue tapping the private sector to fund space exploration efforts under President Trump, marking a continuation in policy that first began under former president Barack Obama.

"Public-private partnerships are the future of space exploration," Dava Newman, a former NASA deputy administrator who resigned before Trump took office, told CNBC on Tuesday. "I call it the new NASA."

NASA | Getty Images

In this handout provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), SpaceXs Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft lift off from Launch Complex 40 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station for their eighth official Commercial Resupply (CRS) mission on April 8, 2016 in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

In total, 22 companies—all American—have won contracts with the agency across a diverse range of sectors, from in-space manufacturing to engine development.

Boeing and Elon Musk's SpaceX will be delivering NASA astronauts to international space stations, while Orbital ATK, Sierra Nevada and SpaceX will transport NASA cargo to space stations, said Newman, who is now chair of the Apollo Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

NASA is a part of the U.S. government, but remains independent while still receiving federal funds —a structure originally conceived by McKinsey. Back in the 1950s, the management consultancy suggested the idea of a separate government office dedicated to space research.

Other countries have also fixated their sights on the private sector. Last year, the Indian Space Research Organisation invited firms to build a full spacecraft as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks to open up the country's satellite manufacturing industry, according to local news.

One specific goal of NASA's public-private partnerships is putting humans on Mars by the 2030s, a journey that's already underway.

A robotic rover that's been exploring the Red Planet since 2012 has helped confirmed evidence that water once flowed on the isolated planet, suggesting the existence of streams and lakes billions of years ago. NASA intends to launch another rover in July 2020.

Obama made no apologies for curbing the agency's exploration ambitions and it's not yet clear how NASA will be impacted under Trump, who said little on space during his campaign.

Some strategists believe the real-estate billionaire will be keen to push property development on the Moon, a scenario that Newman believes will spark excitement "in the next decade."